Method forecast-1.1.0
How the confidence figure is calculated
Quarterdeck confidence is the share of the forecast amount whose deals show supporting evidence in HubSpot. It is not a probability that the forecast closes, and nothing here is a statistical prediction. These are fixed, published rules.
Forecast
What counts as the forecast
Open deals in the Commit and Best case forecast categories with a close date inside the period. When HubSpot does not report a category, Quarterdeck falls back to stage probability: 80% or more is Commit, 40% or more is Best case, and the data-quality notes say so.
Signals
Rules that add points to a deal
A deal's points are the sum of the signals that fired. Under 20 points a deal is Supported, 20 to 49 is Questionable, and 50 or more is Unsupported.
| Signal | Points | When it fires |
|---|---|---|
| No activity record | +25 | HubSpot has no activity date for the deal. |
| No activity for 21+ days | +15 | The last recorded activity is older than the warning threshold. |
| No activity for 45+ days | +35 | The last recorded activity is older than the critical threshold. |
| Close date pushed once | +15 | Observed since the first sync. |
| Close date pushed repeatedly | +30 | Observed since the first sync. |
| Amount reduced | +15 | Observed since the first sync. |
| Past its close date | +40 | The deal is open and its close date has passed. |
| No next step | +10 | No next step is recorded. |
| In stage 30+ days | +15 | The deal has not changed stage. |
| Single-threaded (1 contact or fewer) | +10 | Only when HubSpot reports the contact count. If it does not, no judgement is made. |
| No owner | +10 | No owner is assigned. |
| Long sales cycle | +10 | Open longer than 2x your median won cycle, when at least 10 won deals exist. |
Records
History is never rewritten
A verdict is recorded each day with the method version that produced it, and is not recomputed when the method changes. A period's outcome is frozen 7 days after it ends so late CRM updates are counted. Any change to a threshold or weight bumps the method version.
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Read-only access to HubSpot. Every figure comes with the reason to believe it. Nothing is written back.